The second half of the Hindu calendar is marked by extra celebrity and joy with good reasons. Starting from September onwards, we enter the festive season where every region/ ethnic group has its own festivity ear-marked. Across the country, in every corner, there is some cultural celebration on its way.
Our culture has been structured in a fashion that revolves in synchronization with the agricultural cycle. Our land is blessed with numerous rivers that have fed the plains to make them fertile for farming activity. It’s no surprise that we have been primarily an agrarian economy. A glance at the crop cycle will show that the harvesting period is divided into two parts-Kharif and Rabi. The former is the summer crop which accounts for around 60-70% of the total food produced in the country. The summer grown crops are harvested in winter, which also coincides with our festival season. This is no sheer coincidence, rather the work of our culture and society.
Harvesting period is the time for celebration as the farmer reaps the benefit of months of sweat and labour, as he nurtures the crop in the lap of Mother Nature. It is the time for realizing the gains of his work, and also calls for reveling in merry-making. Thus there is that extra smile on faces, that extra affection among brethren and the extra sweetness.
However, this time around the experience is set to become a sour one. With the slowdown being faced in domestic consumption expenditure, the festive mood looks damp. According to government data, consumer spending has dropped 1.8% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, while at the same time, inflation, as measured by Wholesale Price Index (WPI) has risen steadily for the past three months. Prices have risen by an average of 5.58% for the July-September period. There is a general slump in sentiments-both from the industry point of view and from the consumers’ point of view. Consumer price inflation continues to be in double-digits and households’ inflation expectations are also well-entrenched in the double-digits range.
Not going into the intricacies of economics, the current situation could be gauged through a simple understanding of rationality. Rationality tells us to curtail consumption when you expect prices to rise. If you expect the real value of money to fall faster than increase in your income, the individual will withhold current consumption and save (invest) for the future.
This behaviour translates into subdued sentiments, low spirits and damp morale in the society. It is thus very likely that this time, the festive mood will be lower on energy and excitement. With Diwali just round the corner, sugar consumption is expected to pick up. Reports from physical market (where traders and bulk-buyers engage into wholesale buy and sell settlements) indicate a stagnation price situation. The main buying comes from confectioneries, consumer companies, sweet-makers who capitalize on the festive mood to spread sweetness. However, taking note of the lack in festive spirit, bulk-buyers have reduced their demand for the sweetener.
The connection trying to be drawn out here is that one can relate the changing economic condition to change in behaviour of the society. Our economic actions and decisions have a bearing on other aspects of our daily life- the pattern of our consumption, the dimension of our celebration, the direction of our behaviour to others. So it is quite normal to expect reduction in the amount we share, less number of gifts this festive season, and most importantly, sharp fall in the variety and amount of sweets consumed. This festive season could, in all possible means, be a bitter-sweet experience.
